Like 10 pounds of hibernation weight and ashy elbows, the only thing certain in winter is another Awards season. The Golden Globes and SAG Awards have all happened, but now the Oscars are back with a vengeance. Please watch in horror as the idealistic side of my brain fights the realistic side for supremacy. Oh, and do yourself a favor and get a MoviePass account. How else do you think I saw all these movies?
Best Picture:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What should win:
Waking up and seeing that Get Out scored this nomination made my heart soar. So many of these movies are worthy, but I think Phantom Thread should win it.
What will win:
Despite the growing backlash, I think Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will continue to sweep right up. Whether you loved it or not, It has the momentum and that could do it. I’d really love another upset like last year, though.
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who Should Win:
Lady Bird isn’t the best movie on this list, but Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut was sensational.
Who Will Win:
The Shape of Water is Guillermo del Toro’s best movie since Pan’s Labyrinth, and since he didn’t win it back then, he’ll get it for this. His Golden Globe win and the 12 other nominations The Shape of Water also received will mean something.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Meryl Streep, The Post
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who should win:
Frances McDormand is finally getting her due, and I can’t argue with that.
Who Will Win:
I thought it’d go to Frances McDormand months ago. You can argue this a few different ways, but her performance of a grieving mom out for revenge is too great.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
- Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who Should Win:
Before a few weeks ago I would’ve been screaming Timothée Chalamet’s name from the rooftops, but after seeing Phantom Thread I can’t stop talking about Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance. It’s allegedly his final role, but it’s his best.
Who Will Win:
I can read the writing on the wall, and it’d require a crazy amount of work to unseat Gary Oldman, who’s had this sewn up for a while. Darkest Hour wasn’t a very good movie, but his Winston Churchill is great and Academy voters eat up a good impression of a historical figure.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
- Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Who should win:
This one is tough. If I had my way they’d pull a Mean Girls and give everyone a piece of the statuette. But since I never get my way, let me make a choice. Laurie Metcalf has the performance of her career as Lady Bird’s overworked mom. Lesley Manville is brilliant too. I’d give Allison Janney an award for waking up every morning if I could. Ok, just give it to all of them.
Who Will Win:
Allison Janney, hands down. Nobody else could’ve brought Tonya Harding’s domineering mother to life, and while she’s in a category full of other women worthy of winning, it will go to her.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win:
Sam Rockwell’s character was controversial and has been leading a backlash on the movie since the Globe’s. I don’t disagree with what people are saying, but I think his performance was the strongest here.
Who will win:
Sam Rockwell. He’s won at the SAG’s and the Globe’s and that’ll be enough to lock him in.
Best Animated Feature Film
- Coco
- Ferdinand
- Loving Vincent
- The Breadwinner
- The Boss Baby
Who should win:
I didn’t really care about any of these. Loving Vincent was beautiful hot garbage, Coco was fine, and The Boss Baby was pretty funny but not my favorite. So I eeny-meeny-miney-moed and got The Boss Baby. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
Who Will Win:
Disney always wins. So Coco.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
- James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
- Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
- Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Dee Rees, Virgil Williams, Mudbound
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Who should win:
I think I may die if James Ivory’s beautiful script for Call Me by Your Name doesn’t win.
Who Will Win:
James Ivory has never won an Oscar before. They’d be wrong to not take this opportunity to give him an award he’s deserved for decades.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
- Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win:
If there’s a god above me, they will do what they need to to give this to Jordan Peele for Get Out. I’d take Greta Gerwig for her pitch-perfect Lady Bird script, too.
Who Will Win:
Martin McDonagh didn’t get a nomination for Best Director, so they may make up for it here. But seriously, give it to Jordan!
Best Costume Design
- Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
- Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
- Consolata Boyle, Victoria and Abdul
- Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
- Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
Who Should Win:
Let it be Phantom Thread. They were some of the best, most beautiful dresses I’ve ever seen in a movie. It’s not totally clear if Phantom Thread will break out and get the credit it deserves, so let’s get them this.
Who will win:
Phantom Thread. If Jacqueline Durran was just nominated for Beauty and The Beast, I’d give it to her. The Academy loves those kinds of costume, but I think because they’ll be a vote split for her, it’ll go to Mark Bridges.
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